There’s no shortage of conversation around recessions—whether one is on the horizon, already here, or perhaps quietly fading. As markets fluctuate and headlines stir anxiety, it’s easy to feel unsure about what comes next.

To bring a little perspective (and a touch of relatability) to the topic, let’s revisit an analogy: six ways a recession resembles a bad mood. It won’t take the sting out of economic uncertainty, but it might help make sense of how these periods play out—and how to handle them.

1. There Is No Precise Definition

We all know what it feels like to be in a bad mood, even if we can’t always define why. The same goes for recessions. While many people associate them with declining stock prices or negative GDP growth, there’s no single, clear-cut trigger.

In the U.S., the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession as: “A significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” That vagueness is intentional. Recessions are usually signaled by a mix of data—falling consumer confidence, rising unemployment, decreased spending, and often, market volatility. But no one measure acts as a definitive marker. As the World Bank Group has noted, “the term [recession] does not have a widely accepted definition.”

2. You Usually Can’t Spot One Except in Hindsight

Like a bad mood, we often don’t realize we’re in a recession until it’s already behind us. For example, in 2020, the NBER declared a recession two months after it had already ended. That downturn, triggered by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, became the shortest U.S. recession on record. As of 2025, investors continue to wrestle with questions around the timing and severity of economic slowdowns. With inflation still stabilizing and interest rate policies shifting, many experts remain cautious—but there’s no official stamp that tells us, “you’re in a recession now.” That declaration usually comes later.

3. Sometimes, We Get Stuck for a While

Some bad moods pass quickly. Others linger, feeding on themselves. Recessions can work the same way—especially when fear turns into self-fulfilling behavior. Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller warned of this during previous downturns: “The fear can lead to the actuality.” When inflation rises, consumer and business confidence can fall, which leads to reduced spending and investment. This ripple effect can slow growth even further.

Currently, that’s a very real concern as global markets adjust to the aftershocks of pandemic-era disruptions, geopolitical conflicts, and ongoing supply chain pressures. The point? The emotional and behavioral responses to a downturn often matter as much as the raw data itself.

4. They’re Inevitable

Nobody enjoys a recession, but like a sour mood, they’re part of life. The economy moves in cycles, and slowdowns are a natural—even necessary—part of the rhythm. Recessions often serve to rebalance overheated markets, rein in inflation, and reset economic expectations.

It helps to remember: recessions are temporary. They don’t signal the end of growth—just a pause before the next phase begins.

5. Experience Helps

When you’re young, a bad day can feel like the end of the world. With age comes perspective: you know it won’t last forever. The same applies to recessions.

The 2008 financial crisis was devastating, but it wasn’t the first—or the last—economic downturn. And while today’s challenges may feel different, they’re not unprecedented. U.S. markets have weathered nearly 40 recessions since the 1850s, and each one has eventually ended. Long-term investors who stay the course have historically been rewarded. In fact, historical data shows that 1-, 3-, and 5-year average returns following a major market drop have been overwhelmingly positive. Legendary investor Warren Buffett put it best in his 2012 letter to shareholders: “The risks of being out of the game are huge compared to the risks of being in it.”

6. You Can’t Control the Market, But You Can Control Your Response

You may not be able to avoid a bad mood, but you can choose how to respond to it. The same is true of recessions. External events—from inflation and interest rates to global unrest—are outside your control. But your financial behavior? That’s something you can manage. Here’s how to stay grounded during uncertain times: Stick to your long-term investment plan, even when markets get choppy. Avoid emotional decisions, like selling investments during a downturn.

Maintain a thoughtful budget and adjust spending as needed. Focus on the financial levers you can control, like saving consistently and managing risk. Recessions may come and go, but discipline, diversification, and patience remain your most powerful tools.

Final Thought: Shift the Mood, Not the Plan

Market cycles, like moods, are unavoidable—but they’re also temporary. While it’s impossible to predict exactly when a recession will start or end, we do know that over time, economies recover and markets rebound.

At Navalign Wealth Partners, we’re here to help you weather short-term uncertainty with long-term clarity. Whether you’re feeling confident or cautious, we’ll guide you through the market cycles with a plan designed to last—through good moods, bad ones, and everything in between.

Let’s build a plan that keeps you grounded—no matter what the market is feeling.